AFRICANGLOBE – With the conditions of the environment becoming less tolerable, combined with the rising rate of air pollution through the windblown desert dust, more and more people are expected to migrate, Science News reported.
Climate during summer in the hot regions of North Africa and Middle East is expected to grow over two times more rapid than the average global warming.
Since 1970, the number of extremely hot days has doubled.
According to Max Planck Institute for Chemistry director Jos Lelieveld, who is also a Professor at the Cyprus Institute, the climate in the huge portions of North Africa and the Middle East may change in a way that the existence of its people will be put in jeopardy.
New research shows that temperatures are set to skyrocket in parts of the Middle East and Africa, making human habitation next to impossible. This means that by the middle of the century the daytime temperature of Middle East and North Africa can reach up to 46 degrees Celsius and will not fall below 30 degrees Celsius during night time, while midday temperature could be as high as 50 degrees Celsius. Measurements could read 114 to 122 degrees Fahrenheit during the day by mid-century. Furthermore, heat waves may occur up to 10 times more often. Some areas are much more vulnerable than others, and it’s usually the extremes – the very cold and very hot areas are subjected to much more warming than the global average. Before the century ends, the regions can have an average of 118 hot days. A new study suggests that the continuous rise in temperature brought by climate change may soon turn the Middle East and North Africa into scorching terrain uninhabitable by humans. “Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate”, said Lelieveld. They’re attributing this to an increase of sand storms as a result of protracted droughts.
In order to come up with this prediction, they analyzed climate data from 1986 to 2005, comparing it with 26 climate models over the same time period.
Researchers from the Max Planck Institute used two future global climate scenarios. RCP4.5 is widely based on the climate summit agreement that temperature rises would be kept at less than 2 degrees Celsius.
The second scenario (RCP8.5) is based on the assumption that greenhouse gases will continue to increase without further limitations. This is primarily attributed to a desert warming amplification in regions such as the Sahara.
Evaporation of groundwater can not cool the hot and dry surface and this result to greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor to increase excessively.
In addition, there will be longer heat waves.
More than 500 million people live in the Middle East and North Africa, but Mr Lelieveld and his colleagues believe the number of climate refugees could increase dramatically in the future due to the increasing temperatures.