Two days before the first presidential debate, a new national survey indicates a very close contest between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the race for the White House.
And according to a new poll, neither candidate appears to have an edge on the economy, which remains the top issue on the minds of Americans and which may dominate Wednesday night’s debate on domestic issues in Denver.
Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the survey, which was released Monday, say that if the election were held today, they would vote for the president, with 47% saying they would support Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. The president’s three point margin is within the poll’s sampling error.
Three other national polls of likely voters released in the past 24 hours also indicate a tight race. The other surveys are from ABC News/Washington Post, Politico/George Washington University, and American Research Group. A CNN Poll of Polls which averages all four surveys plus a Fox News poll released late last week puts Obama at 49% and Romney at 46% among likely voters.
In the ORC poll, the national horse race stands pretty much where it was just before the two back-to-back party conventions in late August and early September.
“That’s a strong suggestion that whatever bounce President Obama received from his convention has, as expected, faded away,” says Polling Director Keating Holland. “That’s why they call them ‘bounces’.”
When it comes to issues, the survey indicates that Obama and Romney are effectively tied when likely voters are asked which candidate would best handle the economy. Romney, however, appears to have an edge on the top two economic issues: unemployment and the budget deficit. Obama, by contrast, has the advantage on a variety of non-economic domestic issues such as education, Medicare and health care, and also polls strongly on taxes, traditionally a GOP issue. All of these issues will most likely be debated by the candidates Wednesday night.
The president has a 52%-45% advantage over Romney on foreign policy, which will be the focus of the third and final showdown between the two candidates on October 22.
But debates are not just about issues; voters judge the candidates’ personal qualities as well. Among likely voters, Obama’s personal favorability rating is 52%, with 48% saying they view the president in an unfavorable way. The president’s numbers are basically unchanged since mid August, before the conventions.
The public is divided on Romney, with 49% holding a favorable impression of him and 50% seeing him in a negative light. Romney’s favorable rating was at 50% and his unfavorable at 46% in mid-August.
When the dust settles after the debates, it will all come down to turnout and getting out the vote, and the poll suggests when it comes enthusiasm, neither campaign seems to have the upper hand.
“Only half of Romney’s voters strongly supported him in May, but despite that slow start, he now gets the same level of strong support from his voters that Obama enjoys,” adds Holland. “And there is no indication of an ‘enthusiasm gap’, with 65% of Republicans and 64% of Democrats saying they are extremely enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about voting in November.”
The poll indicates Democrats overwhelming supporting the president and Republicans overwhelmingly backing Romney, with independent voters going for Romney by a 49%-41% margin, which is within the sampling error for independents.
According to the survey, Obama holds a nine-point 53%-44% advantage among females, with Romney with a 50%-47% margin among men. Romney had a larger edge among men prior to the conventions.
“The president seems to have held onto some of that support among men, opening the possibility that their votes may be in play. Obama also held onto most of his bounce among rural voters, but they are still solidly in Romney’s camp. On the other hand, Obama’s biggest losses since the Democratic convention have come among lower-income voters and urban residents – two key elements of his coalition,” says Holland. “But it’s worth noting that support for Obama in those groups is back where it was before the conventions, indicating that the Democratic convention mobilized that portion of the Democratic base but only temporarily.”
The president’s approval rating in the new poll stands at 49% among all adults, with 48% saying they disapprove of how Obama handling his duties in the White House. The president’s approval rating stood at 50%-44% before the conventions.
In addition to the three presidential debates, Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan, the Republican running mate, face off next week at a debate in Kentucky. The poll indicates that Biden has a 47% favorable rating, with 44% saying they see him in an unfavorable way. Ryan has 46%-40% favorable/unfavorable rating.
The new polll was conducted by ORC International Sept. 28-30, with 1,013 adult Americans, including 883 registered voters and 783 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for questions only of likely voters.